Monday, February 22, 2010

Weekend in Review: February 21st

This weekend, one team showed it was head and shoulders above the rest, one won on a buzzer beater, while the same buzzer beater reflected one team's major flaws. Let's get the weekly review rolling.

Duke 67-Virginia Tech 55

In a game much closer than the final score, the Devils hit two late three pointers to put the game on ice Sunday night at Cameron Indoor. Throughout the game, Duke's ability to crash the offensive glass doomed the Hokies. The home team got offensive rebounds on half of their misses, mostly in part to senior Brian Zoubek, who is great at one thing: being really tall, and using his size. The ensuing result was a whopping 16 rebounds for the 7'1 Zoubek. Although the Devils shot 29% from the field, they hit ten threes, compared to two by the Hokies. Many came off second chance opportunities. The game was a competitive one to say the least, with Tech's Dorenzo Hudson and Duke's Nolan Smith getting into it with intense verbal jawing late in the game. Both are unquestioned leaders of their respective teams, and are not the type of players who will back down from an opposing player's verbal challenge. With their 12 point victory, Duke showed they are the class of the ACC. Tech is in solid position for a first round ACC Tournament bye, as long as they win two of their final four conference games. Winning one more game might even do the job, but losing to either NC State or Boston College (ACC doormats) would look terrible on an NCAA Tournament resume.

NC State 68-Wake Forest 54

In an awful week for Wake, NC State outplayed the Deacons in yet another shocking win for the Wolfpack. State now has a win over Duke, the best team in the ACC, as well as wins over Marquette and Wake Forest, two probable NCAA Tournament teams. Yet they carry a 3-10 ACC record, good enough for worst in the conference. Go figure. After blowing an 11 point second half lead at Virginia Tech on Tuesday, the Deacons turned the ball over an astounding 23 times in Raleigh to practically hand the game to the 'Pack. Wake did not make a three pointer. When State shoots the ball well from the perimeter, they can compete with anyone. On this afternoon, they shot 6-12 from downtown, and Farnold Degand and Javier Gonzalez both had quality performances in the same game for the first time since their win against Duke (the last ACC game they won before this matchup). Wake's NCAA tournament chances take a huge hit, although their RPI is still in the top 25. Dino Gaudio's club takes a week off before they face a must-win Saturday at home against North Carolina. NC State improved their NIT resume with the big home win, as well as silencing the growing number of Sidney Lowe critics for the time being.

Maryland 76-Georgia Tech 74
In one of the country's most dramatic games this season, Cliff Tucker sank a three as time expired, and consequently, may have locked up an NCAA Tournament berth for his Terrapins. It was more of the same for Georgia Tech away from Atlanta, as they are 1-7 in their past eight road games. If Tech fails to qualify for the NCAA's after being ranked all year, it could signal the end of the Paul Hewitt may be coming. Hewitt has always struggled on the road, and this season is no exception. They boast an NBA-ready frontline, as well as a deep backcourt. As for the Terrapins, the win showed the Terps are one of the most resilient teams in the conference, and, despite a lack of marquee wins, are a force to be reckoned with in the ACC. One more conference win, and the Terps can be considered a lock an ACC Tournament first round bye, as well as a spot in the NCAA's.

Clemson 72-Virginia 49
Continuing their late-season downfall, the Cavaliers were smoked in every aspect of the game Saturday afternoon at Clemson. Only six players scored for UVA, three of them with four points or less. The 'Hoos are NIT bound, thanks to their inability to develop a third scoring option behind Mike Scott and Sylven Landesberg. Look for Virginia to be much more competitive next year, with more depth coming with a quality recruiting class. As for the Tigers, they are quietly creeping back into the ACC picture. They have won four of their past five games and now carry a 7-5 ACC record. Their final four games are against teams from the top half of the ACC standings and will be tough. The first is a date at Maryland, in a game with ACC Tournament seeding implications. A win would do wonders for the Tigers' resume, and would give them their 20th win.

Boston College 71-North Carolina 67
More of the same for the Tar Heels, who received their sixth defeat in the past seven games. The Heels missed 8 of their 24 free throw attempts, Larry Drew, Will Graves and Dexter Strickland combined for only 18 points and 5 assists, and the team made only one three pointer. All equated to terrible production from Carolina's backcourt, a problem that has been persistent throughout the season. The 13 losses this season by the Heels is the most a Roy Williams-coached team has ever had in a single season. Al Skinner started star combo guard Reggie Jackson for the first time this season, and the move paid off. Jackson finished with 17 points, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. The Eagles have been tough at home this season, and will try to upset Virginia Tech Wednesday in Boston. BC and UNC will be trying to avoid the ACC cellar for the rest of the season, while both will aim for NIT bids.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Weekend in Review: February 14th

Each game over the past weekend gave us a true feel for who will be a serious NCAA tournament contender, who is bound for the NIT, and who's seasons will be ending without a postseason.

Duke 77-Maryland 56
In a game similar to last season's Blue Devil shellacking of the Terrapins at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke dominated from beginning to end. Last year, Duke won 85-44 in a game even uglier than the final score. In this year's game, the Blue Devil defense held the Terrapins to 15% shooting from beyond the arc. Most teams that play Duke focus their defense on the big three of Singler, Smith and Scheyer, and this contest was no different. Problem is, Maryland forgot to box out after contesting shots. Brian Zoubek, of all people, finished with 16 points and a whopping 17 rebounds, including eight on the offensive end. Zoubek uses his massive 7'1 frame to simply reach over defenders to swat rebounds out to his guards, or to get multiple tip rebound opportunities. Although Zoubek is offensively challenged, Duke is greatly benefitting from his size and willingness to affect the offensive glass. The Devils are clearly the ACC favorite after their demolition of the Terrapins, and they are looking unbeatable at home. Maryland had a quick chance for a bounce-back game Monday night against Virginia.

Maryland 85-Virginia 66
In a make-up game from a week earlier, Greivis Vasquez, was unstoppable, as the Terrapins were in great shape from start to finish. Vasquez finished with 30 points, with 25 coming in the first half, a half in which Maryland shot an incredible 70% from the field. The Terps didn't need to shoot nearly that well to win. This game was similar to Maryland's win at home against NC State, in which the Terps ran their halfcourt offense to perfection. The formula for beating Virginia is simple: stop Sylven Landesberg. Mike Scott will get his points one way or another, but if your team defense takes Landesberg out of his rhythm of making mid range shots and getting to the foul line, you will have a great chance to win. Landesberg finished with just 12 points. UVA as a team shot just 2 for 16 from three point range, and those 14 misses allowed Maryland to get baskets in transition. Virginia, after the loss to rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, needs to win the ACC tournament to make the NCAA's. Otherwise, an NIT bid is in store for the Cavs. Expect UVA to be a very solid club next season, as players get more used to coach Tony Bennett's system.

Wake Forest 75-Georgia Tech 64
Georgia Tech can't win on the road... what else is new? Tech has lost six of their last seven road games, with their only win coming at lowly North Carolina. It was more of the same Saturday in Winston-Salem. The Jackets are now in eighth place in the ACC, while Wake is second. Al-Farouq Aminu posted a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds, and the Wake Forest defense was suffocating down the stretch. It held Tech stud freshman Derrick Favors to only four points and two rebounds. Favors played only 22 minutes in the contest. Wake will battle Virginia Tech on Tuesday for its second-place seed in Blacksburg, while the Yellow Jackets host North Carolina in a must-win game for Paul Hewitt's club.

Virginia Tech 61-Virginia 55

Tech swept the regular season Battle of the Commonwealth for the second time in three seasons behind the play of Jeff Allen down the stretch. Allen simply took over with the Hokies down three with two minutes left. First, he makes a layup and gets fouled by Mike Scott, then sinks the free throw. The next possession, Allen drains his second three pointer of the game to put the Hokies up three. On the ensuing possession, an Allen steal and pass to J.T. Thompson, who sank two clutch free throws, put the game on ice. The Hokies host Wake Forest on Tuesday night. If Tech wins, they are a virtual lock for the NCAA tournament, barring a major collapse. The game could have gone Virginia's way, but the Hokies made two more plays than the Cavaliers down the stretch.

Clemson 74-Miami 66
The Tigers won a must-win game at home Saturday against the Hurricanes. Clemson got solid production from its bread and butter of Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt, as well as benefitting tremendously from the Hurricanes going 7-17 at the foul line. Clemson is in the thick of the ACC race after going on a rough stretch without Stitt, who missed games at Boston College and against Maryland and did not start the Virginia Tech game because of an ankle injury. The Tigers went 1-2 in those games. With Stitt back, I expect the Tigers to challenge for an NCAA tournament berth. It will not be easy though, with three of their final five games on the road.

North Carolina 74-NC State 61
UNC continued their dominance of the Wolfpack, beating State in Chapel Hill for the seventh straight occasion. The Heels, playing without frontcourt star Ed Davis for the first time this season, showed they are not ready to throw in the towel just yet. State point guard Javier Gonzalez was once again out-played by his rival, this time being Larry Drew. Gonzalez finished with 13 points, but also a whopping six turnovers. Meanwhile, Drew had 15 points and only two turnovers. The 'Pack, who have lost their past six ACC games since defeating Duke, will try to contend for an NIT berth. The Heels will join them in the "Not Invited Tournament" unless they can win the conference tournament.

Florida State 62-Boston College 47
Using their season-long formula of tremendous halfcourt defense, the Seminoles came away with a comfortable victory against the struggling Eagles. The 'Noles held BC to 17 second half points. At 6-5 in the ACC, and with all five remaining conference games looking very winnable, FSU has a solid chance for an NCAA berth. The downside to their schedule is only having one quality non-conference win- a home win vs Marquette. A season sweep of Georgia Tech certainly does not hurt, and neither does a quality win at home against Virginia Tech. If the Hokies can lock up an NCAA berth, that win will look even better. Boston College needs a solid finish to the season to earn consideration for an NIT berth.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Power Rankings- February 8th (Bottom Half)

7. Florida State- FSU is quickly discovering their identity: a team that cannot win high scoring games. Their lone ACC game in which they scored over 71 points was an 81-88 loss to North Carolina State, at home. This was a game that the 'Noles came into thinking their record would do the work. They then gave up a career high 31 points to freshman Scott Wood. That loss to an NC State team now sporting a 2-6 ACC record and on the brink of desperation might do the Seminoles in down the road. Looming for the Seminoles is a date Wednesday night at Clemson, a team that has reached complete desperation. It will be some feat if this team can come out of Littlejohn Coliseum with a W.

8. Clemson- How the mighty have fallen. Oliver Purnell's team was a trendy pick to win the ACC this year. The Tigers beat Butler and South Carolina in their non-conference slate and had all the intentions of challenging for a top NCAA tournament berth. Now this team is trying to avoid the NIT. CU was 3-1 in the ACC after a win at NC State, and since then is 1-4. To their credit, the slide began on January 26th at Boston College, the first game the Tigers played without starting point guard Demontez Stitt. Stitt is the most valuable player on this team. Losing your starting point guard can be the same as a football team losing their starting quarterback. I still think this team will find a way to make the NCAA's They have too much experience, and when Stitt is healthy and playing well they are a very good team. A win at home Wednesday against Florida State would be a great start to a late season run that would get this club going back in the right direction.

9. North Carolina- Ninth place, by default. If the three teams below the Heels were playing better than the CAA-type teams they are resembling, UNC might be in last place in these power rankings. Maryland absolutely destroyed this club on Sunday, in every facet of the game. UNC had terrible transition defense, they could not establish Roy's patented transition offense, and Maryland's halfcourt flex offense made the Heels' defense look like swiss cheese. Carolina has never been able to match up with Greivis Vasquez and Sunday's game was no different. Vasquez, on his way to conference player of the week honors, put on a clinic for Larry Drew on how to play point guard in the ACC.. Wednesday presents UNC with a challenge like no other: Duke. Although the Heels have beaten the Blue Devils in 5 of the last 6 meetings, this Carolina team is much too different than the Heels of the past four years, for all the wrong reasons. With no Tyler Hansbrough to worry about, the Devils can play solid perimeter defense without having to double down low, which is bad news for Heel fans. Ed Davis and Deon Thompson will need to have to big games to force the Devils to double team, and hopefully Drew, Will Graves, senior Marcus Ginyard, and freshman Dexter Strickland can knock down some perimeter shots. If not, expect Duke to win big in the Smith Center.

10. Boston College- BC has one thing going for them- they are competitive. In their past six games the margin of victory has been seven or less. One thing the Eagles do not have going for them is their record: 12-12, including losses to Harvard and Maine. BC has two NBA players in my opinion- Rakim Sanders and Joe Trapani. Reggie Jackson could eventually make an NBA roster as well. This is just not an explosive team. Al Skinner has always preferred a physical, halfcourt game. This type of style enabled a team like Maine to beat the Eagles. If you stop BC in the halfcourt, you win. This team needs to win some games down the strech to even qualify for the NIT. That will not be easy, as games at Florida State, NC State, and Georgia Tech loom. Nevertheless, I would not be surprised if they beat an NCAA tournament-bound team at home.

11. NC State- This spot was a toss up between State and Miami. I give the edge to the 'Pack because they have two more quality wins on their resume (vs Duke, at Flordia State) than do the Hurricanes. The winning formula is simple for NC State: have Javier Gonzalez and Farnold Degand play well. If both do so, they will have a great chance to win. If they do not, the Wolfpack will lose. They are just not talented enough at all five positions. Dennis Horner's game, in my opinion, is more suited for a mid-major school. Scott Wood is a great shooter and should be a solid player down the road as his strength and quickness should improve, but right now is a liability on the defensive end. C.J. Williams is a 3/4 without a true position, and probably should have joined Horner at a mid-major. Tracy Smith is a stud, and was probably under-recruited. Smith is a tough matchup for any team, but if he gets in foul trouble, NCSU is in major trouble. State is 2-7 is the conference and destined for the NIT, as long as they do not tank the season, but under Sidney Lowe's watch, the unexpected should be expected, so we will see how the 'Pack finish the season.

12- Miami- The 'Canes simply are not a solid basketball club. Team chemistry is obviously lacking, as there are many first year players on the squad, including Villanova transfer Malcolm Grant, who has never seemed to get into a rhythm within Frank Haith's offense. The talent is there. Dwanye Collins is an absolute man inside, and DeQuan Jones is as athletic as any player in the country (want proof? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqR0Hy1c6wo ). But talent means nothing if the chemistry is not there, as Haith has quickly figured out this year. Miami's only conference wins have come at home against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Tech game had the 'Canes shooting 63% from the field, and yet they still only won by a few possessions thanks to a few lucky bounces in the final few minutes. The good news for Hurricane fans is four of their final seven ACC games are at home, so a late-season run is not out of the question.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Power Rankings- February 8th (Top Half)

1. Duke- The Blue Devils showed they were not looking ahead to arch rival North Carolina this past week, in soundly defeating Georgia Tech and getting a tough road win in Boston. This team will go as far as Singler, Scheyer and Smith lead them. All are in the running for ACC Player of the Year, and rightfully so. Each understands the offense, take care of the ball, and play smart, but still aggressive basketball. Expect the Blue Devils to come out firing Wednesday in Chapel Hill against a team that has simply owned them the past four years.

2. Maryland- An asterisk next to the 2 might be deserved for the Terrapins, as they would be number one if they had a signature victory. Duke has six wins over top 25 teams, while the Terps don't have any. Nonetheless, this club has a chance to be very dangerous in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. Gary Williams' club has fantastic guards, and today's demolition of UNC today showcased each player's unique talents. The Terps got defensive stop after defensive stop against the Tar Heels, and seemingly after every outlet pass, an easy basket or an open three-pointer ensued. Greivis Vasquez is right in the middle of Conference POY honors, and Landon Milbourne and Jordan Williams are playing great basketball. Milbourne will never get the credit he deserves, but he is not the Terp's only unsung hero. Eric Hayes is a deadly outside shooter and playmaker, and Adrian Bowie is at times unstoppable in transition. Maryland's halfcourt offense can make a coach salivate, reflected by the fact that they are leading the conference in team field goal percentage.

3. Wake Forest- Wake got a big road win Saturday at Virginia. Led by Ishmael Smith, the Deacon offense is predicated on spreading the floor and letting Smith use his quickness for penetration opportunities. When they can get stops, run outs ensue, and Wake's primary and secondary breaks involving Smith, Al-Farouq Aminu, and freshman stud C.J. Harris are hard to stop. This team can beat anyone in the conference on a given night. The only thing hampering them from becoming an elite team is the inconsistency of the team's scorers. Each night it seems one or two players don't show up offensively. If Wake can get consistent production inside and outside, they will launch into the top 25 and should stay there for a while.

4. Virginia Tech- What a week for Seth Greenberg's club. Thursday, the Hokies beat North Carolina in a tough, hard-fought 74-70 victory in Blacksburg. Saturday the Hokies followed up their performance with an ugly 11-point victory over Clemson. Both victories have the Hokies in the thick of the ACC race, and in the conversation for an at-large NCAA Tournament berth. Tech is led by the conference's leading scorer, Malcolm Delaney. Nobody in the country is more skilled at getting to the free throw line than Delaney, who went to the stripe an astounding 23 times against the Tigers. His outside shot has not been consistently falling over the past few games, but Delaney still always manages to finish with over 20 points. The reasons for the Hokies' success in the two victories were free throws, team defense, and Terrell Bell. Tech shot 82% from the foul line in each win. Great halfcourt defense has been a staple for the Hokies all year, but their transition defense stepped up this week. Bell knocked down a huge three and played very well on both sides of the ball for 40 minutes in the Clemson game and had 11 rebounds against UNC. Freshman point guard Erick Green is playing like an upperclassmen. Tech gets a chance to separate itself even more from the middle of the pack Wednesday at NC State.

5. Georgia Tech- Losing at Cameron Indoor Stadium has become a habit for Paul Hewitt's team, and this year was no different with an 86-67 loss. In Tech's first meeting with Duke, they were able to get stops in the halfcourt and run good enough offense to prevent the Duke fastbreak. The meeting at Duke was the complete opposite. The Jackets followed up their loss in Durham by holding on against NC State at home. A loss to the Wolfpack would have been devastating for this team. Tech's inside trio of Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock is hard to handle. The trio gives GT a huge advantage on the glass. Another good thing Tech has is depth, in large part to the fantastic freshman class Hewitt brought in this year. It will be interesting to see how freshman poing guard Mfon Udofia handles the ACC stretch run in the coming months. Two tough road games at Miami and Wake Forest line the schedule this week, but Tech is perfectly capable of winning both games. Look for the Jackets to go inside to Lawal, Peacock and Favors early and often in both games.

6. Virginia- The 'Hoos lost an overtime heartbreaker at home Saturday against Wake Forest. Sylven Landesberg and Mike Scott were once again terrific, combining for 38 of the team's 61 points. UVA lost because the supporting cast did not step up. Nonetheless, the game still could have gone their way with one more stop in overtime. The Cavaliers will struggle against quick point guards like Ishmael Smith, as Sammy Zeglinski does not possess the foot speed to guard great guards on the perimeter. This team is still somewhat of a contender, though the Wake game showed they are a two-man show. A game Wednesday at rival Maryland gives UVA a chance for a signature win.