Friday, January 29, 2010

ACC Stock Watch: January 29th

The recent week has started to show us which teams are hot and which teams are looking for answers.
Stock Up

Maryland- The Terps are the hottest team in the ACC at 4-1 in conference play. They are an overtime loss at Wake Forest away from being undefeated. Gary Williams' 09-10 team's success stems from great team chemistry. Players know their roles, and the heart and soul of the team is, in my opinion, Sean Mosley. Mosley may be the toughest and smartest player in the ACC. He simply makes winning plays. A look at the Miami box score reflects this. Mosley finished with only ten points, but also seven rebounds, three assists, and three steals. Rarely do you see a guard finish with seven rebounds. The sophomore is second on the team in rebounding, averaging just under six a game, a stat amazing for a wing player. Gary knew he was getting a winner when Mosley signed with the Terrapins out of Baltimore powerhouse St. Frances Academy. The rest of his team is taking on Mosley's attitude of "whatever it takes to win." Entering conference play some experts had them as low as ninth in their ACC power rankings. Now they are on top of the ACC.

Duke- Since the loss at NC State on the 20th, Duke has handled two good teams-Clemson and Florida State. Holding the Tigers to 47 points in their own arena is simply unheard of. The win at Clemson was followed up by a home victory over Florida State, thanks to a late Blue Devil run. Duke's big three of Nolan Smith, Kyle Singer, and Jon Scheyer scored 53 of the Devils' 70 points. The next two games for the Blue Devils will not be easy, as they take a break from conference play Saturday when they pay a visit to a top 25 Georgetown team, then return home Thursday against a Georgia Tech team who beat them 25 days earlier.

Virginia Tech- The Hokies, thanks to a furious late rally, escaped last night in Charlottesville against a well-coached Virginia club. The Cavaliers dominated most of the game, but scored just five points in the final ten(ish) minutes of the game, including the overtime period. The Hokies won the game because they kept UVA stars Mike Scott and Sylven Landesberg off the score sheet for those final ten or so minutes. Virginia led by ten with 3:16 remaining in the game. The Hokies then began to get stops, and got good shots on the offensive end. Coach Seth Greenberg stepped away from his patented motion offense on muntiple possessions in favor of a flex offense designed to take advantage of the Hokies' size advantage at the guard spots. The offense is similar to the style Boston College and Maryland run. Cousins Dorenzo Hudson and J.T. Thompson stepped up for the Hokies, particularly Thompson, who was filling in for started Jeff Allen, who was ejected for a flagrant foul with 13:41 to play in the game. Thompson finished with 18 points, a season high, and hit five of six free throws, an area he had struggled in coming into Thursday night's game. Tech found out something I had known for a few weeks know-they do not need big numbers from Jeff Allen to be successful. The Hokies are used to playing without him, as he is in constant foul trouble. Allen challenges Sean Mosley for the title of best pound for pound rebounder in the ACC, so he obviously does some good things for Greenberg's club, but my point is, having Allen on the bench is not always a bad thing for Tech. Look for Thompson to get increased court time, as well as more minutes for athletic freshman Cadarian Raines, who is glowing with potential.

Stock Down

Virginia- UVA had a miserable performance at Wake Forest on Saturday, and followed it up by blowing a ten point lead with three minutes remaining at home against arch-rival Virginia Tech. Since starting 3-0 in conference and playing the role of conference surprise, the Cavs have fallen down to earth. They will still be a tough out in the future, with two All-ACC performers in Landesberg and Scott, and the development of Sammy Zeglinski at the point is promising.

NC State- All was well after the Pack's home win against Duke. Then the Wolfpack were destroyed at Maryland and then fell at home to rival North Carolina. The Pack are now 2-5 in conference play. State has had poor guard play in the UNC and Maryland losses, as opposed to great guard play against Duke. This team will only go as far as Javi Gonzalez and Farnold Degand lead them. Tracy Smith is their only real go-to man, and he is often somewhat undersized in the post. State will get an chance to recuperate Saturday against NC Central, one of the worst teams in division one, then hit the road for a tough game against Virginia. Gonzalez will need to play well against the Cavs, and Scott Wood and Dennis Horner will need to knock down a few perimeter shots each to take pressure off the interior defense against Smith.

Clemson- The Tigers have had back to back miserable performances in winnable games. They netted only 47 points at home against Duke, the lowest scoring output by a Clemson team in the Oliver Purnell era. They followed that performance up with an uninspired performance at Boston College, a game in which BC was much tougher and were more aggressive. The game reflected the importance of starting point guard Demontez Stitt, who was unable to dress because of an injury sustained in the Duke game. Stitt runs their offense and is their coach on the floor. Andre Young is one of the better bench players in the ACC, but expecting him to run the show with no backup on the road is a tough order. Expect Clemson to slowly creep back into the top of the conference, despite currently sitting in the middle of the pack with a 3-3 ACC record.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Weekend in Review; Part 2

Miami- The Hurricanes did not play this weekend. Frank Haith's team faces their most important game of the season so far at Maryland on Tuesday. They will need a solid team performance on both ends of the floor if they want to avoid a 1-5 start in conference play.

North Carolina- The Heels were off this weekend. Tuesday, they face rival NC State in Raleigh. The Heels have won five of their past six versus the Wolfpack at the RBC Center. Larry Drew will need to play well if the Heels want to have a good chance to win.

NC State- The Wolfpack were destroyed by 24 at Maryland. The Pack backcourt was outplayed in about every facet of the game, as Greivis Vasquez continued his career success against Sidney Lowe's club. Vasquez's size has always been a mismatch for Wolfpack defenders, and this game was no different. Farnold Degand was unable to build momentum from his performance against Duke, going 2-10 from the floor. Against UNC Tuesday, State needs to contain the Tar Heel frontcourt and keep them off the offensive glass, particularly Ed Davis in that department. Knocking down perimeter shots to take pressure of forward Tracy Smith will also be key, as the Heels have a significant size advantage inside.

Virginia- Saturday's game at Wake Forest was miserable, and their first half performance left the game in doubt. The Cavs faced a 19 point halftime deficit, caused in part by the foul trouble and subsequent benching of stars Sylven Landesberg and Mike Scott. Both received two fouls early in the first half, and coach Tony Bennett benched them for the remainder of the period. An 18-1 Wake Forest run ensued and the game, for all intents and purposes, was over. Scott and Landesberg will need big games at home Thursday against rival Virginia Tech. Scott will have a good opportunity to get back into the swing of things, as he will likely be matched up against former prep school teammate Jeff Allen, who at times, can get quite lazy on the defensive end.

Virginia Tech- Thanks to a late Dorenzo Hudson basket, Tech escaped at home by one point against Boston College. The Hokies led by nine at halftime thanks to suffocating halfcourt defense that gave them many easy baskets in transition. BC took much better care of the ball in the second half, forcing Tech to score their points in the halfcourt. This did not come easy for VT, and the Eagles slowly crept back into the game. The game could have easily gone BC's way. A late, blatant offensive foul by Jeff Allen nearly cost the Hokies the game. If Seth Grenberg's club wants to win at rival Virginia on Thursday, he will need Allen and Malcolm Delaney to step up, as well as get 10-15 points from Dorenzo Hudson. Whether it be Hudson or Terrell Bell on UVA leading scorer and reigning ACC Freshman of the Year Sylven Landesberg, the Hokies will need to force him to take tough shots.

Wake Forest- Wake won big at home Saturday against Virginia, who was previously undefeated in ACC play. Senior point guard Ishmael Smith shot 7-10 from the floor and the foul line, finishing with 21 points. He also had six assists. Wake shot 52% from the floor, compared to 33% by UVA. Wake is quietly a great defensive team. They have a giant frontline, and L.D. Williams is regarded as one of the best perimeter defenders in the ACC. Their defense feeds their transition offense, and when they can get stops in the halfcourt, Smith and their fastpaced offense get going. To beat the Deacons, teams must run sound halfcourt offense, take smart shots, and counter with solid floor balance. Wake will look to move to 5-2 in ACC play Thursday at Georgia Tech.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Weekend in Review; Part 1

Teams' stocks rose and fell in a matter of two days. Let's make a quick run through of all the teams, and who's stock improved, who's worsened, and who stayed afloat.

Boston College- The Eagles squandered away a chance for a great road victory early in ACC play as they lost 63-62 in Blacksburg to Virginia Tech. BC turned the ball over 19 times in the game, most coming in the first half as the Hokies boasted a nine point lead at the break. But Al Skinner's team showed resilience in the second period, displaying great halfcourt defense and holding ACC leading scorer Malcolm Delaney to only 13 points. The Eagles easily could have won the game, as they beat Tech by one in an eerily similar match last year in Boston. BC possesses a size advantage inside on most teams, and the versatility of wing/forward Joe Trapani will be hard for teams to match up against. Reggie Jackson is the best 6th man in the ACC. The Eagles are most comfortable with games in the 60s, and will look to play halfcourt type games as the season progresses.

Clemson- Oliver Purnell's teamfell victim Saturday night to an angry Duke team hungry for a win over a quality opponent such as the Tigers. Clemson's backcourt quartet of Demontez Stitt, Andre Young, Tanner Smith, and Noel Johnson combined for a 0-8 assist to turnover ratio. The Tigers also shot the ball poorly, particularly from the perimeter. Trevor Booker was his usual self, posting 22 points, but only got to the free throw line twice. Clemson won the rebounding battle 27-25, but ultimately their poor shooting doomed them. Stitt, Smith, and Johnson shot a combined 4-19 from the floor. If the three make four more shots the game could swing in the Tigers' favor. Clemson is still a major ACC contender.

Duke- The Blue Devils got their first true road win of the season at Clemson, and shut up the hostile Littlejohn Coliseum sellout crowd. Duke's success was predicated on great defense, as they allowed only 47 points, their second lowest point total allowed all year, in their 13 point win. The Devils held Clemson to 15% shooting from beyond the arc. Not only has Nolan Smith stepped up to become perhaps the heart and soul of his team, but he has put himself in the conversation for All-ACC first team honors this year. Smith had 22 points Saturday night on 8-13 shooting, as well as not turning the ball over once, showing that he is playing within himself and not forcing shots while still leading the team in scoring.

Florida State- FSU got a big home win today, as they best Georgia Tech by a count of 68-66. The Seminoles displayed outstanding perimeter defense throughout the contest. Tech's tremendous inside duo of Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors was held to only 15 points, thanks to the tremendous size the Seminoles display up front, led by 7-1 Solomon Alabi. Alabi is a likely NBA lottery pick, and showed why today. He posted 14 points, including 6-6 at the foul line, and frustrated Lawal and Favors with his size all day. Chris Singleton, another likely NBA top 20-pick, led FSU with 22 points, despite shooting a miserable 4-10 at the free throw line. FSU will need to shoot better than 20% from three point range, as well as get more production from their bench, if they want to become a contender for the ACC crown this season.

Georgia Tech- Tech lost by two in a physical game in Tallahassee. Without the tremendous performance of freshman wing Brian Oliver, who came off the bench to net six threes. The inability to get easy baskets in transition or to get Favors and Lawal involved inside let to Tech's demise. Mfon Udofia was held to five points and could never get going off missed FSU baskets. He finished with only one assist. Tech will get a chance to bounce back at home Thursday against Wake Forest in a game that is likely to be a track meet. Udofia will face a stern challenge against lighting quick Ishmael Smith, who will be looking to push the tempo at all costs. Look for Lawal and Favors to have bounce back games. Whoever wins the rebounding battle inside will have a critical upper hand in the game.

Maryland- The Terrapins dismantled NC State at home, 88-64. The Terrapins got tremendous production from their big three of Greivis Vasquez, Landon Milbourne, and Sean Mosley, as they combined for 50 of the team's 88 points. Maryland's backcourt took much better care of the ball, and therefore won big. Cliff Tucker came off the bench to score 11 points to take some pressure off the team's starters. Classic Gary Williams teams that have had success in postseason play have had deep backcourts, and this team certainly has that element. The Terps, winners of three of their last four, are the hottest team in the ACC. The one loss came in overtime at Wake Forest. Maryland will look to continue their success Tuesday in College Park against a desperate Miami team.

Friday, January 22, 2010

ACC Midweek Power Rankings- Bottom 6

7. Virginia Tech
The Hokies face a virtual must-win Saturday at home when they face Boston College, a team they are better than. A win would get back Tech back to .500 in conference and would set up a showdown Thursday at rival Virginia for early season positioning, and if nothing else, bragging rights. The game in Charlottesville presents a huge opportunity to send a message to the rest of the conference. More scoring is needed from Jeff Allen and Victor Davila if the Hokies want to be a major player in the ACC this season.

8. Florida State
FSU blew an opportunity for a solid home win Sunday against NC State. The Seminoles' usually top notch perimeter defense allowed a career high 31 points to freshman wing Scott Wood. The Seminoles came into the game sporting the nation's top field goal percentage defense. That defense will face a test Sunday at home against Georgia Tech, when Iman Shumpert and the Jackets come to town. Shumpert is coming off a 31 point performance in Chapel Hill.

9. North Carolina
The Tar Heels are easily one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Their lack of leadership and their inability to take care of the ball and hit perimeter shots is at times excruciating to watch. Simply put, they do not have many players in the backcourt who are ready to be solid ACC players. Their frontcourt has two NBA-ready prospects in Deon Thompson and Ed Davis, but the Heels need Larry Drew to step up if UNC wants to become relevant in the ACC this season.

10. NC State
The 'Pack got a huge resume-building win at home Tuesday against Duke. Javi Gonzalez and Farnold Degand played amazing basketball, simply outplaying Duke guard Jon Scheyer, who came into the game as a favorite for ACC player of the year. Nonetheless, don't read too far into this. Gonzalez and the rest of State's backcourt shot a combined 11 of 21 from the floor, including a staggerring 4 of 6 from three point range. They also took amazing care of the basketball, which has been an issue for Degand and Gonzalez in the past. The Wolfpack will attempt to continue their momentum Saturday at Maryland. Guard play will once again decide the Wolfpack's fate as they try to slow down Maryland's immense backcourt depth, which is loaded with experience. Maryland has beaten State in each of their past five meetings.

11. Boston College
Once again, BC has lost some early season shockers to small conference teams. This season, the Eagles lost at home to Maine and in a repeat of last season's upset, Harvard won at the Conte Center for the second season in a row. Al Skinner's team simply plays up, or down to their competition. BC boasts a 2-3 conference record with both wins coming against Miami. Saturday the Eagles play at Virginia Tech, a team they have not beaten on the road in eight seasons.

12. Miami
Every year, the Hurricanes seem to fall off the map once they become a part of the national picture. This season, they started off 15-1 and cracked the top 25 before laying an egg in Blacksburg, a game in which they were down as many as 35 points. UM then lost at Virginia and for the second time this season to Boston College. Frank Haith's team faces a huge game at Maryland on Tuesday.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Midweek Power Rankings

Midweek Power Rankings- Top 6

Time for the first installment of our weekly power rankings in the conference. 

1. Duke
Despite the loss at NCSU, I see it as a fluke. NC State played their best game of the season. Duke will be fine coming forward, but they are the smartest and most balanced team in the conference, with experience to boot.

2. Clemson
The Tigers and Blue Devils square off Saturday night in Littlejohn Coliseum in a huge battle for early season power. The winner of this matchup will be the favorite to win the conference. I give Clemson the edge over Georgia Tech because of their more experienced backcourt.

3. Georgia Tech
Despite GT's beating of Clemson earlier in the week, I feel like the game could have gone either way. They have two great home wins already on their resume in beating the conferences two top teams. Now time for them to make up for the loss at Virginia by showing it can control the pace of the game on the road, not just in Atlanta.

4. Virginia 
They are 3-0 in the conference. Why not ranked higher? Experience. Sylven Landesberg is the unquestioned leader of this team, and he is only a sophomore. Besides Landesberg, and junior forward Mike Scott, consistent scoring is hard to come by. We will see if the preseason surprise of the conference has the big guns to score night in and night out very soon.

5. Wake Forest
Wins over Maryland at home and North Carolina on the road have let the ACC know they are for real. The 20 point loss at Duke was not indicative of how competitive the game is, and when Ishmael Smith is able to push the ball in transition after the Deacons are able to get stops, they are tough to stop.

6. Maryland
The Terrapins got a big win last Saturday by beating Florida State at home. They then went on the road to beat Boston College by double digits. With a player like Grevis Vasquez, you are never out of a game, but neither is the other team. He has had games in the past with 8 assists and 8 turnovers, and has taken some of the most ill-advised shots I have seen a player east of Kobe Bryant take. Nonetheless, he lead the team in scoring, assists, and rebounds last year so he obviously does some good things for the team. Maryland is a tough basketball team with a chance to win every night, so I would look out for Gary Williams' team from here on out.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

NC State gets HUGE win

NC State won at home today against 7th Duke, 88-74. It was the first time the Wolfpack have defeated the Blue Devils in the regular season under coach Sidney Lowe. The 'Pack dominated from the tip, and certainly benefitted from Duke's 8-14 assist-turnover ratio. The win puts the Wolfpack in the thick of the ACC race at the moment, and gives the rest of the ACC the impression that Duke may not run away with the conference after all. In my opinion, Duke is still clearly the best all around team.

Wake Forest looking great at UNC

In the latest installment of UNC disappointing its fans (who don't know how bad their team's backcourt really is), Wake Forest is leading by 16 with 6 minutes left at UNC. With UNC at home, you never know, but with Wake's overall experience coupled with the fact that Ed Davis is injured, Wake is looking solid right now to get a big road win. If North Carolina is unable to come out with the win tonight, they should be unranked on Monday for the first time since 2006.